David decodes major historical events to forecast global change in today’s world.


David Murrin is an acclaimed polymath and speaker, with a career of more than three decades focussed on finding and understanding human behavioural patterns and then using them to predict events and trends in Geopolitical and global markets.

David combined his fascination with military history, geopolitics and finance into a unified geopolitical model. His book Breaking the Code of History, published in 2009, has accurately predicted the dramatic global changes we’ve seen over the past two decades, including the dangers related to the decline of American hegemony and the rise of China. David follows Winston Churchill’s maxim “The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see.”

His core theory is the Five Phase Life Cycle of Empire, which analyses and “decodes” the rise and fall of empires throughout history, from the Roman Empire to the rise of China today.  He links this cycle directly with demographics, polarisation, resources dynamics and warfare, as well as to climate change. He has also lectured on war and strategy at the UK Defence College for the higher command staff course for one star commanders.

David’s company, Global Forecaster, utilises these collective behavioural models to predict macro market moves, qualify risk parameters, aid risk assessment, and reduce biases in collective investment decisions. Market predictions are entwined with geopolitical changes, such that the timings of major events often may be forecast relatively precisely. His geopolitical models are based on his human system theories that have expanded on the five stages of empire model.

His analysis and projections offer practical insights into the entropic forces at play in today’s world – with a special focus on China’s hegemonic challenge to American power within the wider conflict of autocracy versus democracy. He challenges entrenched assumptions and share astute practical examples that will provide his audiences with roadmaps through today’s turbulent realities.

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